过去十五年，美股像开挂一样连冲数百个百分点。无论是通胀、加息、疫情还是政治混乱，都没能把它按下去。但在这条看似平坦的上升曲线下，却藏着多个正在扩大的断层：AI 投资能否持续？移民劳动力正在减少？美联储会失去独立性？关税会不会压垮制造业？这一次，我们试着给这轮“史诗级牛市”做一次全面体检。

Can Anything Slow Down This Market: Artificial intelligence, tariffs, battles with the Fed and the loss of immigrant labor could test its resilience

有什么能让这个市场降温？人工智能、关税、美联储面临的政治对抗以及移民劳动力的减少，都可能考验市场的韧性

US stocks have been on an epic roll for about 15 years. There were bumps along the way, but the S&P 500 has largely powered through inflation scares, interest-rate hikes, corrections, mini bear markets, wars, a pandemic, a growing fiscal deficit and presidents with wildly different agendas. This spring, concerns about fallout from tariffs set off an almost 19% drop in the index, but by early October it was up about 35% from its April 8 low. Outside of an episode no one can predict, what would it take to derail this market? Bloomberg Businessweek asked veteran market watchers to map the fault lines.

derail /dɪˈreɪl/ v. 使...脱轨

fault lines /fɔːlt laɪnz/ n. 潜在弱点

美国股市已连续上涨近15年。尽管过程中起伏不断，但标普500指数大体穿越了通胀恐慌、加息、调整、小型熊市、战争、疫情、不断扩大的财政赤字，以及数任政策取向截然不同的总统。今年春天，市场因担忧关税后果而一度下跌近19%，但到10月初，却已从4月8日的低点反弹了约35%。撇开无法预测的突发事件不谈，要让这轮市场脱轨，需要什么触发点？《彭博商业周刊》向资深市场观察者请教，试图勾勒这些潜在的脆弱环节。

The market's recent resilience can be explained, in part, by the time it takes sweeping changes to show up in the economy, according to Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at investment firm GMO LLC. Inker says the stock market tends to overreact initially to new and potentially scary events, then sees they're not the end of the world. "We go from people freaking out to people shrugging and saying this isn't a big deal," he says. "It very well might be a big deal. It's just going to take a while to really see all the consequences."

sweeping /ˈswiː.pɪŋ/ adj. 影响深远的

freak out /friːk ˈaʊt/ phr. 极度紧张

投资公司GMO LLC资产配置联席主管本·英克表示，市场近期表现出的韧性，部分来自于深刻变革往往需要时间才能真正体现在经济中。英克说，股市通常会在面对新的、潜在可怕的事件时先反应过度，随后又意识到，这些事情并非世界末日。“人们会先紧张到不行，然后转而耸耸肩，说这其实没什么大不了。”他说，“而它们很可能确实很重要，只是需要时间才能看清全部后果。”

This could be the case with tariffs, Inker says. Other shocks that will take time to filter through the economy, he adds, are the loss of immigrant labor and the way uncertainty—about tariffs, labor and other issues—slows businesses' process of making strategic decisions.

filter through /ˈfɪl.tər θruː/ phr. 渗透；传导

英克表示，关税影响就是这种需要时间传导的典型例子。他补充说，其他同样会延迟显现的冲击包括移民劳动力的减少，以及围绕关税、劳动力等问题的不确定性所导致的企业战略决策放缓。

In the meantime, the massive scale of build-outs for artificial intelligence data centers has become material to the economy, Inker says. "If that AI spending were to stop growing, that's a scary thing, because so much of the market depends on the 'hyperscalers," he says, referring to major beneficiaries of the AI boom such as Alphabet, Amazon.com and Microsoft.

build-out /ˈbɪld.aʊt/ n. 基础设施建设

hyperscaler /ˌhaɪ.pərˈskeɪ.lər/ n. 超大规模云服务商

与此同时，人工智能数据中心的大规模建设已经成为对整体经济产生实质影响的力量。英克说：“如果AI相关支出停止增长，那将是件非常可怕的事，因为市场高度依赖那些‘超大规模云服务商’。”他指的是Alphabet、Amazon.com和微软等AI浪潮的主要受益者。

What would "really freak the market out," Inker says, is the potential damage caused by the showdown between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Trump wants to remove Cook based on allegations of mortgage fraud; Cook disputes the charges and has sued to stay on the job. (On Oct. 1, the US Supreme Court said Cook couldn't be immediately ousted.) "Fed credibility matters, and I don't understand how their credibility could survive a situation where it is clearly not independent," Inker says.

freak out /friːk aʊt/ phr. 使...抓狂

showdown /ˈʃəʊ.daʊn/ n. 对抗；摊牌

oust /aʊst/ v. 罢黜；驱逐

英克认为，真正可能“让市场抓狂”的，是特朗普总统与美联储理事丽莎·库克之间的对抗所造成的潜在损害。特朗普试图以抵押贷款欺诈指控为由罢免库克；库克否认这些指控，并提起诉讼以保住职位。（10月1日，美国最高法院裁定库克不能被立即免职。）英克表示：“美联储的信誉至关重要。我无法想象，如果其独立性受到明显挑战，它的信誉还能如何维持。”

LESS EXCEPTIONALISM. America's markets can't continue to outpace global ones to the massive degree they have since 2009, says Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. In a recent paper, "American Exceptionalism: Navigating the Great Rebalancing," Shalett laid out ways the US is becoming less "special."

exceptionalism /ɪkˈsep.ʃən.əl.ɪ.zəm/ n. 例外论

美国例外地位正走向削弱。摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙利特表示，美国市场不可能继续像2009年以来那样大幅跑赢全球市场。在最近的论文《美国例外论：驾驭大再平衡》中，她阐述了美国为何正在变得不再那么“特殊”。

"We are entering a far more challenging period," she says. Rather than seeing US stocks compound at 15% a year, she expects future returns to be closer to 5% to 6%. Those lower returns mean many other asset classes around the world become more competitive to investors, she says.

“我们正进入一个更具挑战的时期。”她说。未来的股票回报率大概率会落在5%到6%之间，而非继续维持每年15%的复合增长。较低的回报意味着全球其他资产类别将变得更具吸引力。

Cracks are already emerging in the US exceptionalism story, Shalett says, with the gap between American and foreign long-term interest rates narrowing, leading to a depreciation of the dollar. Slower-moving hits to the country's economic edge include the loss of immigrant labor. Aging populations have weighed on economic growth in Europe, Japan and China, but in the US, immigrants have kept the working-age population younger. "Immigrants enter the workforce at a much higher rate because they tend to be young, and they tend to grow our population at a higher rate than native-born Americans," Shalett says.

depreciation /dɪˌpriː.ʃiˈeɪ.ʃən/ n. 贬值

weigh on /weɪ ɒn/ phr. 拖累；造成压力

沙利特指出，美国例外论的故事已经出现裂痕：美国与其他国家的长期利率差正在缩小，美元因此走软。对美国经济优势造成缓慢侵蚀的因素还包括移民劳动力的减少。欧洲、日本和中国的老龄化正在拖累经济增长，而在美国，移民让劳动年龄人口更年轻。沙利特说：“移民进入劳动力市场的比率远高于本土出生者，他们通常更年轻，也推动了美国人口比本土人口更快增长。”

She stresses that she's not saying the US is in a bubble. She also says the promise of AI could be enormous. But "the US is trying to do a lot of things right now, and the market is so richly priced," Shalett says. "From here, let's have more modest expectations."

她强调自己并不是在说美国正处于泡沫之中，她也认为AI的潜力巨大。但她表示：“美国现在同时在推进很多事情，而市场估值偏高。从当前起，我们需要更温和、更现实的预期。”

THE WEALTH EFFECT. The stock market's long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession, says Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. He's noticed warning signs in labor market data, pointing to nonfarm payroll numbers, where job growth has slowed, to 0.9% from 1.3%, from the same period a year ago. It's rare to see such growth fall below 1% and still have the economy in expansion mode. "As that number drops, the economy's resilience to any sort of external shock weakens," Ramsey says.

nonfarm payroll /ˌnɒn fɑːm ˈpeɪ.rəʊl/ n. 非农就业

财富效应。Leuthold Group首席投资官道格·拉姆齐表示，股市的长期上涨掩盖了潜在的经济疲弱，延缓了衰退的到来。他注意到劳动力市场出现警示信号：非农就业增速已从一年前的1.3%放缓至0.9%。在经济仍处扩张阶段时 seeing this drop below 1% 非常罕见。拉姆齐说：“随着该数字继续下降，经济对任何外部冲击的韧性都会随之下降。”

Ramsey argues that fat balances in investment accounts are fueling strong consumer spending by top earners. Spending by households that make up the top 10% of US earners accounted for almost 50% of all spending in the second quarter, a record stretching back to 1989, according to Moody's Analytics. A linkage between asset prices and consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of US gross domestic product, is known as the "wealth effect." And if much of consumer spending is tied to higher asset prices, it could leave the economy vulnerable to market drops. "I'd argue that the wealth effect is more important than it's ever been," Ramsey says, "simply by virtue of the fact that the stock market is much larger, relative to the economy, than it's ever been before."

linkage /ˈlɪŋ.kɪdʒ/ n. 联系

by virtue of /baɪ ˈvɜː.tʃuː ɒv/ phr. 凭借；由于

拉姆齐认为，投资账户中可观的资产余额正推动高收入群体的强劲消费支出。根据穆迪分析的数据，美国收入最高10%的家庭在第二季度贡献了近50%的总消费额，创下自1989年以来纪录。资产价格与消费支出之间的关联被称为“财富效应”，而消费支出占美国GDP的三分之二。如果大量消费支出系于不断走高的资产价格，经济就会更容易受到市场下跌的冲击。拉姆齐说：“我认为财富效应比以往任何时候都更重要——仅仅因为股市相对于整体经济而言，如今的规模前所未有地庞大。”

解读：自 2009 年以来，美国股市的上涨，已经与真实经济基本面脱节到令人震惊的程度。

1）绿色粗线：S&P 500（标普500）

自 2009 年以来涨幅超过 400%，远远甩开所有经济指标，股市涨到了一个“不可思议”的高度。

2）蓝色线：美国经济政策不确定性指数

波动极大，多次冲上极高点（例如 2020 疫情、2024-2025 关税不确定性）。整体趋势是“高不确定性时代长期化”。

3）橘色线：美国个人收入

稳定而缓慢上升，15 年累计上涨幅度大概在 40%～50% 之间。

4）粉色线：制造业与贸易销售

平稳甚至略显乏力，几乎无明显加速。与股市的“冲天走势”形成鲜明对比。实体经济没股市那么热。

5）虚线：非农就业、工业生产、消费者预期

几乎都在 +0% ~ +30% 的狭窄区间挪动，就业增长有限，工业生产停滞，消费者预期常年在 0 线附近“上下波动”，甚至多次跌入负值区域。真实的经济活力并没有强劲增长，甚至有时显得疲弱。股市与经济“脱钩”达到了前所未有的程度。